Had Enough of Covid Restrictions & Lockdowns?

The UK and many other governments have taken it upon themselves to try and suppress Covid because they consider it to be a highly dangerous killer.

It’s not.

You would be forgiven for believing the UK government’s narrative; however, by doing this you are actually sustaining it, which means you are sustaining the restrictions, lockdowns, plus huge government spending (of our money) as well as massive destruction of value in the private sector (think hospitality, transport and many other businesses).

As of December 2020, having “spent” perhaps £300 Billion attempting to control Covid and destroyed potentially £1 Trillion’s worth of private sector value; the UK government’s strategy cannot be described as successful, can it?

There is a solution.

This involves each of us taking personal responsibility for our actions, rather than expecting our government to decide this for us.

We do need to minimise the transmission of Covid by following the government’s distancing, hygiene and mask guidance.

For those of us who are not in critical roles, the most significant thing we can do individually, is not to present for PCR or Antigen tests.

By doing this, the basis for the government’s suppression strategy would gradually go away.

Think about it.

If you have any Covid symptoms, why is it so imperative to get tested?

Can’t you make a simple decision yourself that you just need to self-isolate?

If the vast majority of the UK’s population took this approach the number of positive case tests would drop, whilst the monitoring of antibodies would continue and provide useful information on who has already been infected (and who may not need a vaccination, but that’s another story).

Let’s put some context around the UK government’s narrative.

A - Covid is a deadly virus.  No it’s not:

1. For people younger than 60, 99% of those infected won’t die.

2. For people in the age range 60 to 69, approximately 98% of those infected won’t die.

3. For people in the age range 70-79, approximately 95% of those infected won’t die.

4. And for people older than 80, approximately 91% of those infected won’t die.

5. Source: Imperial College, 16 March 2020 (Report-9 March 2020)

B - Restrictions and lockdowns are necessary to protect the NHS and save lives:

1. This has a degree of validity, for example, by reducing human interactions the infection rate is reduced and less people, over the duration of the restrictions/lockdowns, present to the NHS.

2. But, once restrictions are lifted, the infection rate picks up so it’s not actually possible to control the infection; just defer it, at significant financial cost.

3. Lives are not saved, as we know.

4. Restrictions and lockdowns do reduce pressure on the NHS but at huge cost to the country and private business.

5. Imagine what the NHS would be like if the government spent £300 Billion on it, rather than spending this on locking down the country?  You’d like to think the excess deaths would be significantly lower if the government had focussed spending on the NHS rather than on restrictions and lockdowns.

C - Testing is the only way to control the virus:

1.    The virus cannot be controlled, like seasonal flu cannot be controlled, even with a vaccine.

2.    No current tests can show who is actually infectious. The tests show the presence or absence of Covid DNA, or Antigens, or Antibodies.

3.    Because millions of people became infected in the late Winter and Spring of 2020, a significant proportion of people who present for testing in the Winter will show as positive cases, but due to earlier infection, not necessarily recent or current infection.  So, restrictions and lockdowns, based on the rate of positive case results, are not realistic.

D - Deaths will increase without lockdowns:

1.    Deaths rates due to infection with Covid are unreliable and cannot be used as a robust metric.  Anyone basing decisions or judgements based on Covid deaths should not be taken seriously!

2.    The only reliable measure of deaths is the current total rate compared to the 5 year mean rate for the same time of year i.e. excess deaths.

3.    Based on the experience from the Spring, lockdown actually increased excess deaths; the opposite of what was intended.

Conclusions

A large number of people believe the government’s Covid strategy is correct.  A significant element in this, is the narrative around fear.  We must do these things or people will die.

The unfortunate news is that more people die in the Winter each year, irrespective of Covid.

The vast majority of healthy people won’t be killed by Covid.  Some old people, plus younger people with specific medical conditions, could die from Covid, like they could die from flu.  This is not unusual.

Sadly President Trump was correct when he said he wanted to stop testing for Covid because the more testing the more positive cases, which doesn’t equate to more infectious people, that need to self isolate.

Lastly, if you think you have Covid then follow the guidance for self-isolation, but don’t panic and don’t rush off for a PCR test.  Instead help your country return to normality by not feeding the government's strategy of restrictions and repeated lockdowns.

P.S. Just as I write this the UK government has introduced more restrictions because a mutated version of Covid has been found to be more infectious than the original.  The more significant aspect is what impact the mutated virus has, not its degree of infectiousness.  But being totally risk averse means the imposition of new restrictions; there's no choice apparently. Oh dear, more fear, here we go again. UK Latest Restrictions 19Dec20

March 2021: Here's an interesting read on behind the scenes in the UK government during 2020: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56361599